MACEDONIA

[Skopje; special to JURIST] Since 1991 the Republic of Macedonia has been known as the only former Yugoslav republic that successfully avoided any involvement in the conflicts that left deep scars on the other Yugoslav successor states. However, the past decade has been a difficult period for the young state, which had to face many challenges. Despite it being the only peaceful actor in the Yugoslav drama, Macedonia was not rewarded for its policy and behaviour. The first major problem appeared during the process of gaining international recognition, when it was given a bizarre name (that from this perspective may sound prophetic)the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). Later on Macedonia suffered huge economic losses because of the imposed economic sanctions against the regime in Belgrade, the unilateral Greek embargo as a form of economic pressure on Macedonia regarding the conflict over the usage of the name Macedonia, the blunder NATO intervention in 1999, etc. However, during the last decade the country has managed to establish a relatively stable political system based on the principle of multiethnic democracy. The system showed lot of deficiencies and weaknesses but, at least, built a framework for institutional conflict resolution with peaceful means, which was in opposite to the violent conflicts, ethnic cleansings, mass discrimination on the ethnic ground, intolerance and hatred that, more or less, was common for the other Yugoslav successor states.

Democracy in Macedonia as well as peace has always been fragile and, therefore, any achievement and positive tendency have been seen and appreciated as very valuable. The attitude of the so called international community has been ambiguous. On one hand, Macedonia served as a face saver for the conflict mismanagement and inappropriate responses in the other parts of the former Yugoslavia. Especially the UN mission of preventive deployment (1992-1999) was given much publicity as a unique case of conflict prevention. With the termination of this mission and the following NATO blunder in FR Yugoslavia in 1999 Macedonia has lost its significance in the global constellations in the Balkans. Once known as an 'oasis of peace' Macedonia has become a place d'arme, logistic base to NATO-led KFOR mission in the neighbouring Kosovo and only a transit route to the troublesome province of Kosovo. All efforts for conflict prevention and peacebuilding in Macedonia stopped, and the previously deployed NGO and governmental missions moved from Skopje to Prishtina. The outbreak of violence in Macedonia came as a surprise only for naive or ignorant people. However, there is no excuse for the 'international community' for its confusion and inappropriate responses to the current crisis.

During the 1999 NATO intervention in Yugoslavia Macedonia had become one of NATO's 'collateral damages'. Many experts warned that soon one could expect a spillover effect in Macedonia. Truly, the country has always had its internal conflicts - all it needed was a catalyst to set those conflicts in motion.

The newly signed cease-fire agreement in southern Serbia should have been a positive signal, but suddenly hostilities started in previously peaceful Macedonia. The prospects are far from being optimistic. The basic preconditions for a peaceful solution to this situation are wisdom, knowledge and the courage to abstain from violence. Unfortunately, after 40 days of tensions and armed clashes one can hardly identify any internal actors in Macedonia who would be willing and able to promote the culture of non-violence. The tensions are growing with incredible speed, and reluctance to undertake resolute actions just worsens the situation.

The crucial security problem is not the border one, in spite of the whole seriousness of the situation (i.e. swift spreading of the clashes from one village into several others, siege of the city of Tetovo, killed people, etc.). In fact, the problem is not of a military nature and cannot be perceived through the prism of the capabilities of the Macedonian security forces. The prolonged crisis on the border with Kosovo has had a strong echo in society, which is splitting from inside and becomes paranoiac in terms of the distrust between the ethnic groups, the loud cries for discrimination, state terror, more rights for Albanian minority etc. The counter-reaction on the Macedonian side is as expected: there is lots of talk about the 'granting of enormous rights', that there must not be any other steps on expense of the Macedonians, that Macedonians have no other state in reserve etc. In the media there is a lot of hate speech, and people are more concerned not about the things that are said but about the things that are not said explicitly. The state apparatus can keep certain control over the situation for some time, but under such conditions there cannot be any talk about human rights, democracy, and peace.

Something strange has been going on within the Albanian community for some time. Mr. Arben Xhaferi, the leader of the Albanian party (DPA) that is a partner in the governing coalition, evaluated the current problem as internal problem of the Albanians, which should be resolved among them alone. There is a lot of rivalry on the Albanian side, both in political and para-military terms, and what makes things very dramatic is that each faction blames the others for copying its own political agenda, which has been promoted since long ago. That agenda includes, certainly, more collective rights for Albanians, change of the constitution and federalisation of the state, bi-lingual official communication etc. Unfortunately, none of the political parties claims to be a citizen-based party, because it is probably seen as a political suicide. DPA, the member of the governing coalition, is in an enviable situation between a hammer and an anvil: on one hand, it faces open accusations by the armed rebels that they have not achieved anything in terms of declared Albanian cause (the story that reminds one a bit of the rise of Kosovo UCK and Ibrahim Rugova), while on the other side with similar accusations stand their political opposition and the Albanian part of 'civil society'. Because of its weird position DPA has been balancing between, on the one hand, promoting peaceful solutions for the problems and keeping the integrity of the Macedonian state (which is what the international community expects from them), and, on the other hand, flirting with demands for 'justice' implying that there are injustices against Albanians in Macedonia.

Macedonia's 'oasis of peace' has always been more a metaphor than reality a metaphor which made the Macedonian state look good to the international community, while it was struggling for international recognition. On the other hand, it is also true that for ten years there has been a process of building of multiethnic society here, a slow process, but a persistent one. Regardless of the fact that the achievements have maybe been modest, they deserve praise, especially when compared with opposite developments in the other parts of the former Yugoslavia.

Nowadays Macedonia is losing its political 'virginity' and is again transforming into a powder keg, as the region was in the past. Today, however, this powder keg is not related to the rivalry of the neighbouring Balkan states over the Macedonian population and territory. The danger of Macedonian society "imploding" is far greater. The Macedonian state can have future only within a peaceful framework. Therefore the crucial question is whether Macedonia society has enough internal strength to resolve problems by peaceful means. Certainly, this approach calls for prevention of negative external influences. It means that the violence should be stopped where it has its origins (i.e. in Kosovo), but also it means stopping wrong moves by the international community.

One should not rely too much on solutions imposed from outside. It may sound cynical but what the region has seen so far was been a classical example of conflict mismanagement and there was no single success story. That success story should have been Macedonia but there is nothing left of that image now. The international forces in neighbouring Kosovo have become hostages and they are mostly afraid of their former 'protégés' that they are not able to control. As long any of the conflict parties perceives the international forces as allies (or enemies) peace will not have a chance. The Albanians in Macedonia again see the US/NATO as their main supporter. On the other hand, despite the clear and loud condemnations of the 'militant extremist groups', the concerned actors in Macedonia read differently the messages that come from the West. Frankly speaking, indeed the West is sending ambiguous messages (and even more dubious behaviour on the ground) because of its own reasons.

Macedonia is a very small country but possesses a huge explosive potential. It may turn into the worst nightmare for all the Balkan states but also for the international community. Before it undertake any action to manage this conflict, the international actors should honestly admit their mistakes from the past and finally figure out something about lessons learnt. Possible failure will bring a huge risk of chain reactions in Kosovo and Southern Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, but also a wider Balkan war.

Dr. Biljana Vankovska
JURIST Macedonia Correspondent

Faculty of Philosophy
(Political Science and Military Law)
University of Skopje

25 March 2001