FORUM

HE'S ON THE MAP: GORE LIKELY TO WIN:

Stephen J. Ware
Cumberland School of Law, Samford University

If the race between Al Gore and George Bush follows the pattern of every presidential election since 1960 then Al Gore will win. This pattern is remarkably simple. It is based on the geographical strengths each party has developed over the last 40 years.

Republicans dominate in the enormous L-shaped area encompassing the Mountain Time Zone and the South. Democrats dominate in three areas: the Northeast, the West Coast and the portion of the Midwest, centered on Minnesota, with strong progressive and socialist traditions. The rest of the Midwest is the battleground of national elections because neither party is dominant there.

The simple pattern of presidential elections is that the winning candidate comes from the other party's stronghold. Democrats win when they run Southerners (Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter and Lyndon Johnson) against Republicans from Republican territory (George Bush, Sr., and Barry Goldwater) or from the neutral Midwest (Bob Dole and Gerald Ford).

The pattern works the other way, too. Republicans win when they run Californians (Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon) against Democrats from Democratic territory (Walter Mondale and Hubert Humphrey) or from the neutral Midwest (George McGovern).

In sum, there have been seven presidential elections to test the geographical-pattern theory and all seven produced the result predicted by the theory.

The only other presidential elections of the last 40 years were 1980 and 1988. In 1980 both parties ran a candidate from the other side's stronghold and in 1988 both parties ran a candidate from their own stronghold. These two elections then, are "toss ups" under the geographical-pattern theory. That both of these elections went Republican may have much to do with the personal popularity of Ronald Reagan.

It is probably no coincidence that the geographical-pattern theory explains presidential elections beginning in 1964, but not before then. Prior to 1964, both parties had large numbers of both liberals and conservatives. 1964 was the year conservatives established control of the Republican Party. Liberal Rockefeller Republicans have been moving toward the Democrats ever since. 1964 also saw a dramatic migration in the other direction by white southerners who provided Goldwater with his only electoral votes outside his home state.

Since 1964, the correlations among party affiliation, ideology, and geography have continued to strengthen. The enormous L is now solidly Republican and conservative, while the Democrats' three strongholds are now solidly liberal. A candidate who can win in the other party's stronghold is truly demonstrating broad appeal.

Al Gore of Tennessee is such a candidate, while George Bush, Jr., of Texas is not. If the geographical pattern continues to hold, Al Gore will be our next president and Republicans seeking victory in 2004 will look toward nominating the likes of New York Governor George Pataki or Pennsylvania Governor Tom Ridge.

May 8, 2000

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Discussion

• Interesting theory. But (unlike Johnson, Clinton and Carter) is Gore really from the South? His father was, but I'm not so sure about Junior.

  Mark Brown
  Stetson University

  • Professor Ware responds: Gore is "from" the South in the relevant sense that, before running for national office, he had won elections in Tennessee. (It is in this same sense that Reagan is "from" California, rather than Illinois, and Bush Senior is "from" Texas, rather than New England.) Mark Brown makes a good point, though. Gore seems less distinctively Southern (and more Eastern Establishment) than Johnson, Carter or Clinton.